Duran: Trump is trying to make U.S. companies question doing business with China

Channel: Fox Business
Published: 05/10/2019 06:45 PM

Description
United Capital CEO Joe Duran and AGF Chief U.S. Policy Strategist Greg Valliere on the potential economic impact from the hike in tariffs on China. FOX Business Network (FBN) is a financial news channel delivering real-time information across all platforms that impact both Main Street and Wall ...



Transcript
All right, let's go to greg valliere on that. We'Ve got united capital ceo, joe durant joe. Do they go the currency route, in other words, devalue their currency, because with only about a billion dollars worth of imports in the us, it's not chatty, but there's only so much oomph you can. You can respond to? Well, i'm not sure, that's the path. I would take because it affects it has a much broader ...
impact on their whole economy. So i think what you might see is that they would attack us corporations, make it harder for apple to sell any products, make it hard for ford to sell cars. So they put pressure on the companies, the wayto, think about this. Really, as we've gone from a twenty billion dollar tariff, i consider it a tax that consumers and businesses are paying it's expanding to 50 billion, and if the trump administration then expands it we're gon na go to a hundred and thirty billion. That starts to really affect things. You know it's different at twenty. Fifty is okay and if, if a president decides to really expand it, a hundred and thirty billion of expanded costs that's hard to just ignore and - and i think the pressure is the president's trying to make the us manufacturers question whether they should do more work with China or just work around them and that takes longer to impactgregg valliere we're getting a report for bloomberg that the vice premier also said that of the talks they went fairly. Well, so you have art treasury secretary minutiae, calling them constructive.

This guy sounds what my dad used to say when you look at my report card and say well you're going into the next grade. You haven't been left back but whatever and i'm wondering if that's an interesting divergence, isn't it. Obviously he has a more jaded view of what happened. What do you think of that? It'S a bad story. Neal i mean i'm a glass-half-full guy. I think like you, but it's awfully hard to see a lot of silver linings here. Look donald trumpcan spin better than anybody can spin, but for him to say this is a good story for the us. I mean be serious: it's not a good story for farmer, it's not a good story for small businesses. I think this is obviously not a good story for the market, but greg think about this. He comes back and says from the very beginning. When i first went up to china, all the market averages are up he's right about 5 % on average. The world i average is right.

Secondly, says: if we're so devastated by the actions i've taken. Look at what's happened to the markets. Look what's happened on all these economic numbers that show record lowunemployment rates for almost every major group, including the general us population. If that's a problem that this has been deal epirus, it's a funny way of showing it you say. Well, i just say this briefly. I think this could take the us economy from very good to just good we're not headed for recession, we're not headed for a growth of 1 %, but it takes a real strong economy and takes the edge off all right joe. What do you think of that? We go from very good to good. I don't agree necessarily. I actually think this week's market action while in the scenario feels good to lose three to five percent. I think it's remarkably resilientyou know. I look at the fact that we'd had this huge run-up, eight billion dollars going to her and frankly, what should have been a very negative week, given the run-up that we've had with no correction, and i actually feel pretty good about how modest the market reaction is Seeing a hub far apart, the two sides appear to be junk: that around a greg's point that maybe the market is kind of whistling past the graveyard. Maybe it is, it is refusing to see the very real possibility that, unlike prior tires, that have been effect on a relatively small number of goods and then we're at 10 % anyway, and most of them were absorbed by businessesand the chinese supplier to limit the damage.

You can't do that at 25 % that gets to be more problematic and the wave of goods affected everywhere from shampoo to processed foods to eating deodorant the deodorant. One scared me because i thought well if people just stopped using deodorant, that's a national crisis, but your thoughts on that not the deodorant. Well, i agree with you yeah. Absolutely it could get a lot worse. I think the markets still be that this is a negotiating ploy and that we've got a couple of weeks and the president is just trying to put pressure. The thing that he has to remember is he has to give everybody a win. Andthe chinese want to show that they won and the us wants to show they won, and it would be helpful if he thought about how do i construct something. That is that we can both claimed that we had victory, because at the end of the day it's a nobody's interest. We wouldn't put them on the spot with the hiking under the tariff and all these other goods. He was impatient. I get that, but he there's no way they can say face from that, so gregg valliere, while it might have been appropriate understandable, given his frustration. That is the president's with this process.

He might, with the best of intentions, doomed himself right there, there's achance, that we could get really serious structural reforms out of china by taking a hard line, but there's also a risk neil that the us farm sector, which is already in a recession, could wind up In a depression, all right well state line that might be extreme, but we'll take a look at it here. We are getting a lot of email on this subject. I should point out gentlemen: i want to thank you both.


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