Coronavirus Spread Self-Sustaining, Won't Stop With Warmer Weather: CFR

Channel: Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Published: 7 hours ago

Description
Jan.27 -- Thomas Bollyky, senior fellow for global health, economics, and development at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the factors behind the spread of the deadly coronavirus, a possible vaccine, and the likely source of the contagion. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: European Clos...



Transcript
The cdc just in the last few moments, with a new briefing saying 110 people under monitoring for the coronavirus, no new cases and five people infected. It does not appear to have mutated all that is as good news as we could have hoped for dr. bolli key. There was a suggestion by a market participant today that, once the weather gets warmer in china that this actually will go away, is there any re ...
son to believe that does weather have anything to do with the spread of this? I don't think so. I don't think this is going to go away with with warmer weather. I mean, of course, to the extent that it ties to a respiratory illness. I can take the point, but given how many cases we're seeing now and if the modeling is right that we're looking at tens of thousands of cases that can sustain itself or for some time, is there any reason to believe that an iv or a us company? That'S already working on drugs for other illnesses might have some kind of a quick key to trying to combat this particular one. Well, we are moving to that conversation because we're getting to the kind of numbers now sars at its height, which again caused thirty billion dollars of economic damage, 800 deaths, but at its height had 8,000 cases. We may already be well beyond that with this current virus. Again, the numbers aren't confirmed, but the modeling suggests were we're, certainly heading in that direction. So at some point this conversation becomes less about. How do we stop this, this epidemic from happening and from spreading and more about what we do with the fact that we are in a ongoing pandemic and that's where vaccines, better diagnostics are going to become important? We are making good progress on the diagnostic case.

There are already efforts both on the nonprofit side, as well as the the private side to develop vaccines, but really even with a vaccine you're. Looking at three months before we get in to the basic phase one trials to develop their safety, it's going to be a year before there's a vaccine on the market, and that's why again, it's really important that we get a better sense of how this disease spreads And how often it leads to serious consequences, because that will give us a sense of what's what's going on? Okay, let's take into the details about a little bit more you the word pandemic and epidemic already. Let'S talk about how this compares to the normal influenza season. Influenza kills a lot of people around the world. We don't get excited about it in the way that we're getting excited about this. How do the two differ in terms of their scale and seriousness? People should get more excited about flu, for, without a doubt, an average of 30,000 americans die a year from flu. This, in particular, has been a terrible flu season. We have, we have dramatically poor rates of people adopting the the flu vaccine. That'S out there so people if viewers want to be concerned with something get your flu shot. That'S far far more likely to be an issue for you than this particular disease. That said the one thing about this condition: currently it's spreading more easily than a regular flu. Might so this what we have a sense of for each person? That'S infected! This is spreading to between two and three, unless we can get that number down to under 1, we're not going to to be able to control and and and snuff this this epidemic out.

It is an epidemic for sure, in the sense that it's already spread to 13 countries when you get a larger number of cases. These definitions are a little fuzzy, but we are heading to the kinds of numbers that people would call it traditionally a pandemic and even though it's less deadly, we think than sars. When you have that many cases it could do a lot of damage. Why do we get these cases starting in china? Is there anything peculiar about what's happening in china? That is leading us to these situations like it's, not the only one. We have obviously had what happened in career. We'Ve got the mers. We'Ve got various other similar cases, but nevertheless there appears to be a concentration of these events seeming to start in china. What'S going on it's a great question, so it's in part because of the while wildlife trade. This appears, although we're not certain as of yet and there's some contrary evidence, but we think this started at a wet market. So these are markets where people buy live animals. It seems like this disease originally started in bats. That'S what the current best intelligence is but may have spread to another animal, which is in fact what happened with sars.

Some of your viewers may remember, it started in a palm civet, but that had it looks like come earlier from bats. Bats are mammals that live together in very large populations of other bats and diseases spread amongst them quite rapidly, and that's why they're, your classic classic disease vector.


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