Falling birth rate can lead to an economic decline

Channel: Fox Business
Published: 05/15/2019 10:27 PM

Forbes Media Chairman Steve Forbes, Kadina Group’s Gary B. Smith and Kaltbaum Capital Management's Gary Kaltbaum on the potential impact the low fertility rate has the U.S. economy. FOX Business Network (FBN) is a financial news channel delivering real-time information across all platforms that...

Alert the number of babies born in america last year falling to a 32 year low. Yes, about 3. 7 9 million babies were born in 2018. That'S a 2 percent drop from a year ago, so with the rape now slipping four years in a row. What impact does this fertility slump have on our future workplace and overall economy? Gary bee to you first well liz! It'S it's not good! You know this has been studied. Actua ...
ly, the national bureau of economic research has shown that low fertility rates are directly correlated to low economic growth, look no further than europe and japan in particular. You know liz. Let'S just say the the baseline is about two children. Perwoman is kind of the replacement rate. If you will, before japan, drops started dropping below that in 1975 prior to that their gdp growth was averaging about 6 to 8 percent per year. Since then is declined almost consecutively all the way down to it's barely 1 % a year the same as in europe. That'S why getting back to our first segment? We need more immigrants, not less.

We keep going this rate, we're going to go exactly the way europe and japan has done with gdp growth. It'S pretty simple. People make the economy the less people, the less potential of the economy, it as simple as that and gary's right when he brings up japan, japan, hashad straight downhill since 1975, and their markets have head straight down since the 80s when they peaked out in that big. Gigantic bubble so yeah, something that has to be addressed, and this does, as you said, gary brings in the immigration part. There. We'Re gon na need a lot more people as we move forward. If these numbers continue other ways just japan and europe, it's everywhere in the world, it's brazil, it's echo, believe it or not, or it depends on where you are demographically in terms of class. I don't think there's anything. That'S gon na be done about this. The more affluent societies become, the more educated women become the fewer children they have, it is truegdp. Growth will go down statistically, but if you have a productive economy, fewer people, the same amount of money is still more prosperous. We are not used to looking at these things this way, but the reality is, if you're, producing about the same for fewer people, you are in fact doing somewhat better because the the divisor is less so i don't think this is all an unmitigated disaster and it Is also an inevitability and it is happening not just europe.

Why not, but then every other, the one giant exceptionally short term on fertility is china, which had that horrible one-child of child policy still grew at eight to ten percent a year. What really needsto get there? One reason you have the low birthrate is people don't have faith in the future? It'S a spiritual crisis, we're not supposed to discuss that here, but it does reflect around pessimism and i think that's going to change. If we make changes here and get this economy going, and people feeling there's a real good future again well as babies again well as as the one person here in this conversation that actually has to have the baby, let me just tell you: if you get equal Pay and you get women more financially stable. They feel better about being able to take care of children. I am just telling you that anybody, who's educated andit's thinking about these things. You don't sit there and say: oh, let me just have a baby. You think how am i going to afford this? How am i going to pay for that? What about the formula formula is so expensive? It does come down to economics. The illustrators who the more educated women are throughout scandinavia, even with huge health care embedded in the system benefits. A men do not tend to want to have more than two to three children white. They have achieves a certain education and - and i wonder where all the crisis talk plays into this - i mean every day we're hearing about everything's a crisis, the world's gon na end. Everything is aproblem and - and you read all the time about saying - i'm just not gon na - have kids because of this. Well, that's that pessimism or problem or problem we haven't talked about, though the social security system has almost since the inception relied on more people coming in and paying for the system, then taking out, we flipped that scale the other way and we're already starting to do That, with more retirees and people paying into the system now you have another problem, social security's already intro.

Well now you have less funds coming in that are being taken out. We have another financial calamity on our head. Oh joy, i did my part. I have two great kids thankyou, ladies and gentlemen, we had five so yeah. That'S right. I came from five winner.

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